Monthly Archives: March 2014

Turkish False Flag Operation?

Posted on March 30, 2014 by Martin Hellman

According to a recent New York Times article Turkey appears to have considered using a false flag operation to drum up public support for attacking Syria. If true – and the statement from the Foreign Ministry mentioned below seems to indicate that is the case – this is one more reason to be careful in accepting drumbeats to war. For other examples, see this blog’s series on Avoiding Needless Wars. The first installment on the first Gulf of Tonkin incident has links to the other nine at the end. Here’s the gist of the Times article: Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged critical thinking, false flag operation, martin hellman, stanford, syria, Turkey, war and peace | Leave a comment

Chris Christie’s “Bridge-Gate”: A Dangerous Lack of Critical Thinking

Posted on March 28, 2014 by Martin Hellman

At first glance there might seem to be no connection between Defusing the Nuclear Threat and the current controversy over New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s “Bridge-Gate.” But a closer examination reveals a dangerous lack of critical thinking on the part of the media and society as a whole. As argued in my Stanford class handout, “Critical Thinking, War, and Nuclear Weapons:” Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged bridge-gate, chris christie, critical thinking, martin hellman, nuclear risk, stanford | Leave a comment

Significant Progress on Reducing Iran’s Uranium Stockpile

Posted on March 20, 2014 by Martin Hellman

With all the bad news coming out of the Ukraine, it’s nice to report significant progress on rolling back Iran’s nuclear program. For the first time in a year, that nation’s stockpile of 20% enriched uranium has shrunk to the point that it can no longer be further enriched to make a weapon. While cautious optimism is in order, that is really good news. Here are some key excerpts from a February 26 article covering this development (emphasis added): Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged enrichment, iaea, iran, martin hellman, nuclear risk, nuclear weapons, progress, stanford, uranium | 2 Comments

More on the Ukraine

Posted on March 16, 2014 by Martin Hellman

With the Crimea voting today on whether to secede from the Ukraine, and early returns indicating strong support for secession, the following perspectives on the crisis are particularly relevant. As before, I am emphasizing unusual perspectives not because the mainstream … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Arseny Yatseniuk, critical thinking, martin hellman, nuclear risk, patrick armstrong, referendum, russia, russia other points of view, stanford, ukraine, war and peace | Leave a comment

Henry Kissinger’s Perspective on the Ukrainian Crisis

Posted on March 11, 2014 by Martin Hellman

Former Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger had an OpEd last week in the Washington Post which just came to my attention, and which presents yet another, interesting perspective on the Ukrainian crisis. I’ve excerpted some key parts. Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged critical thinking, foreign policy, henry kissinger, international relations, martin hellman, NATO, nuclear risk, OpEd, putin, russia, Tymoshenko, ukraine, war and peace, Washington Post, Yanukovych | 2 Comments

Nixon’s Adviser Warns Ukraine Could Have “Echoes of 1914”

Posted on March 9, 2014 by Martin Hellman

An interview in The New Republic presents yet another perspective on the Ukrainian crisis. In it, Dmitri Simes warns that actions by the Obama administration could lead to “worse than anything we have witnessed during the Cold War. We would hear the echoes of 1914.” Simes is the founding president of The Nixon Center, now known as The Center for the National Interest, and served as an unofficial policy adviser to President Nixon. Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged cold war, critical thinking, Dimitri Simes, Dmitri Simes, martin hellman, nuclear risk, nuclear war, stanford, The New Republic, ukraine, war and peace | 2 Comments

Ukraine: Why We Need to Stop and Think

Posted on March 6, 2014 by Martin Hellman

Pictures of Ukrainians – some dead, some alive – with blood all over them tugs at our heart strings. And well it should. But, before we let our emotions get the better of us, we need to stop and think: What do we really know? Unless we do that, we risk spilling far more blood. Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Catherine Ashton, critical thinking, martin hellman, nuclear risk, putin, russia, stanford, ukraine, Urmas Paet, war and peace | 2 Comments

Unusual Perspectives on the Ukrainian Crisis

Posted on March 5, 2014 by Martin Hellman

We constantly hear the mainstream American reaction to the Ukrainian crisis, with a number of authors even comparing Putin’s actions in the Crimea to Hitler’s takeover of Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland. My goal, both in today’s post and Sunday’s is to provide alternative perspectives so that you can then draw your own conclusions. Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged martin hellman, nuclear risk, nuclear weapons, putin, russia, stanford, ukraine, war and peace | 5 Comments

Ukraine: The Value of Risk Analysis in Foreseeing Crises

Posted on March 2, 2014 by Martin Hellman

The quantitative risk analysis approach to nuclear deterrence not only allows a more objective estimate of how much risk we face, but also highlights otherwise unforeseen ways to reduce that risk. The current crisis in Ukraine provides a good example. Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged martin hellman, Matlock, nuclear risk, Obama, putin, russia, stanford, Tymoshenko, ukraine, war and peace, Yanukovych | 3 Comments