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Tag Archives: ukraine
Playing Russian Roulette in Ukraine
The risk of the war in Ukraine escalating to a full-scale nuclear war is far greater than our nation realizes. While it is impossible to quantify that risk precisely, I estimate that it is roughly comparable to pulling the trigger … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged nuclear risk, russia, stanford, ukraine, war and peace
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Five Things America Needs to Learn
Harvard Prof. Stephen Walt has an excellent article in Foreign Policy that I highly recommend you read in its entirety. Although its title is “The Top 5 Things the Next American President Needs to Know About Foreign Policy,” ordinary Americans need to learn these as well because, until enough of us do, the president will be unable to act on them out of fear of the political consequences. Here are Prof. Walt’s key points, excerpted from his article: Continue reading
Is the US Still Encouraging Islamic Militants to Attack Russia?
Back in the 1980s, the US armed and trained Islamic militants in their battle against the Soviets in Afghanistan, with President Reagan’s mistakenly seeing the mujahideen as “courageous Afghan freedom fighters,” instead of the violent, anti-Western extremists we now know them to be. I don’t know if our nation is still encouraging Islamic militants to attack Russia, but that certainly is the impression a Russian reader would get from a front page article in today’s New York Times that interviewed Chechens now fighting Russian separatists and “volunteers” in Ukraine. Continue reading
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Tagged Chechen, critical thinking, martin hellman, New York Times, nuclear risk, russia, stanford, ukraine
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Understanding the Ukrainian Crisis
Much has been said in our media about Putin’s propaganda war, and I agree that an information war is in progress over the Ukrainian crisis. But it is not one-sided. We, too, have blind spots, andwiththe following two misconceptions being the source of many of our errors: Continue reading
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Tagged information war, martin hellman, nuclear risk, propaganda, putin, russia, stanford, ukraine
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Avoiding a Repeat of the 1962 Cuban Crisis
I highly recommend Prof. Rajan Menon’s article in The National Interest, Avoiding a New ‘Cuban Missile Crisis’ in Ukraine. I’ve attached a few key paragraphs below my signature line, and encourage you to read the full article. This fits well with the risk analysis approach I’ve been recommending for analyzing nuclear deterrence and reducing the danger that it might fail. Continue reading
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Tagged cuban missile crisis, martin hellman, nuclear risk, putin, Rajan Menon, russia, ukraine
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Could the US Resolve the Ukrainian Crisis By Doing Less?
Back on February 8, 2014, twelve days before the Kiev massacre which led to President Yanukovych fleeing to Russia, Ronald Reagan’s Ambassador to Moscow Jack Matlock wrote very presciently, “Ukraine’s most serious problems are internal, not external. They must be solved by Ukrainians, not by outsiders. … I believe it has been a very big strategic mistake – by Russia, by the EU and most of all by the U.S. – to convert Ukrainian political and economic reform into an East-West struggle.” A recent poll confirms Ambassador Matlock’s perspective. Continue reading
Charlie Wilson’s War: An Attempt at Version 2.0
Today’s Wall Street Journal has an article noting that former Senator Gordon Humphrey, who played a key role in arming the mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s, is now working on what can be described as an attempt at version 2.0 of Charlie Wilson’s War. Early on, the article gives the impression that was a great success, noting that, “The Soviet Union collapsed soon after.” Only much later (where far fewer people will see it) does it add, “outside experts often cite that covert action as a cautionary tale about the risks of intervention. In the chaos after the Soviet withdrawal, the Taliban rose and played host to Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda.” Continue reading
Saber Rattling Works, But Which Way?
We hear repeated assurances that appearing strong and belligerent will get our adversaries to back down and behave. A 1995 USSTRACOM report even argued that we should cultivate a national persona that is “irrational and vindictive” in order to induce fear in our opponents. But … Continue reading
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Tagged critical thinking, deterrence, martin hellman, nuclear risk, stanford, ukraine, war and peace
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Putin the Moderate??
In a recent talk following a visit to Russia, former Nixon advisor on Soviet matters Dimitri Simes told his audience that Putin is not ideologically driven and is the West’s best hope for a negotiated settlement to end the Ukrainian crisis. Simes went on to warn that, if we fail to take advantage of Putin’s moderate stance, we risk empowering reactionary elements within Russia who “want to do crazy things.” That, in turn, he warned could end in a disastrous military confrontation similar to the way World War I started. Continue reading
Germany Warns of “Dangerous American Propaganda”
History shows that catastrophe tends to follow when the US media fail to do their job by not questioning statements fed them by our government. Vietnam and Iraq are Exhibits A and B in that argument, and as I’ve argued repeatedly on this blog, Ukraine should be Exhibit C. With respect to Ukraine, the German government is assuming the role abandoned by our media, but almost no Americans are aware of it. This post lays out what Germany is saying and, if you agree that more people need to hear that perspective, please share this post via email, Facebook, or other means. Continue reading
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Tagged Angela Merkel, Bundesnachrichtendienst, critical thinking, der spiegel, Germany, martin hellman, nuclear risk, propaganda, russia, stanford, ukraine
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Defusing the Nuclear Threat 