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Tag Archives: NATO
Turkey Shoots Down Russian Jet: Part 2
Yesterday’s post noted that none of the seven major news outlets I had looked at regarding Turkey’s shooting down a Russian fighter mentioned the nuclear dimension to the risk. Today’s New York Times and Wall Street Journal coverage bring the number to nine. They also provide some important details that help explain what happened. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged martin hellman, NATO, nuclear risk, nuclear war, russia, stanford, syria, Turkey
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Turkey Shoots Downs Russian Jet: What Happens Next?
Today’s news that Turkish fighters shot down a Russian jet, killing at least one of the pilots, is unlikely to lead to a nuclear crisis … but there is a chance that it could. If Russia had shot down one of the Turkish planes – or were to do so in a future such encounter – we would be bound by Article 5 of the NATO Treaty to treat it the same as an attack on one of our own aircraft. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged cuban missile crisis, martin hellman, NATO, nuclear risk, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, russia, syria, Turkey, war and peace
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A Very Dangerous Ukrainian Development
Three months ago I explained why, somewhat paradoxically, the possibility of Ukraine’s joining NATO would create significant additional risks for Ukraine’s security – as well as US and world security. So I was very concerned today when Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty had … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged critical thinking, martin hellman, NATO, nuclear risk, nuclear war, stanford, ukraine, war and peace
7 Comments
Should NATO Welcome Ukraine?
With Ukraine’s effort to subdue the pro-Russian rebels in the eastern part of the country faltering, it is understandable that its Prime Minister submitted a proposal to Parliament seeking NATO membership. What is surprising – and dangerous – is the response of NATO’s Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen: “We fully respect Ukraine’s decisions as regards Ukraine’s security policy and alliance affiliations.” Continue reading
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Tagged Anders Fogh Rasmussen, martin hellman, NATO, nuclear risk, nuclear war, putin, russia, stanford, ukraine, war and peace
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The Crisis in Ukraine: What Can Be Done?
This post is a repost of a few key parts of Floyd Rudmin’s post of the same title, with a recommendation that you read the whole thing: “The crisis in Ukraine is serious. At some point soon, reality needs to become the priority. No more name-calling. No more blaming. If there are any adults in the room, they need to stand up. The crisis in Ukraine is going critical, and that is a fact.” Continue reading
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Tagged Floyd Rudmin, martin hellman, NATO, nuclear risk, nuclear war, russia, ukraine, war and peace
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Preventing Ukraine From Spiraling Out of Control
The crisis in Ukraine continues to simmer, but thankfully has not yet boiled over. Here are some of the developments since I last wrote on this topic, followed by some thoughts on what is needed to minimize the risk of the conflict spiraling out of control. Continue reading
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Tagged critical thinking, georgia, Georgian war, martin hellman, NATO, nuclear risk, putin, russia, stanford, ukraine, war and peace, William Hague
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Henry Kissinger’s Perspective on the Ukrainian Crisis
Former Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger had an OpEd last week in the Washington Post which just came to my attention, and which presents yet another, interesting perspective on the Ukrainian crisis. I’ve excerpted some key parts. Continue reading
US Creates Nuclear Trip Wire in Poland
The U.S. Air Force officially stationed a small detachment of soldiers at a base here in central Poland on Friday, part of Washington’s bid to reassure an important European ally without jeopardizing ties with Russia. … The move was touted by Poland’s government, which has for years asked for a U.S. military presence to protect the former Eastern Bloc country from a resurgent Russia. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged deterrence, Georgian war, martin hellman, NATO, nuclear deterrence, nuclear risk, nuclear trip wire, nuclear war, poland, stanford, war and peace
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Missile Defense: Two perspectives
My friend and colleague, Dr. Pavel Podvig, has always provided an interesting perspective on Russian-American relations, especially those concerned with military issues. Born and educated in Russia — he has a Ph.D. in Physics from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology — he also has spent considerable time at MIT, Princeton, and Stanford. His current posting on missile defense is no exception. Here are some key excerpts: Continue reading
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Tagged deterrence, international relations, martin hellman, missile defense, NATO, nuclear risk, pavel podvig, stanford
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Let’s Not Repeat the Mistakes of October 1962
The Cuban Missile Crisis surprised both Kennedy and Khrushchev because neither had adequately thought through how the other would respond to his actions. Each side saw its own moves as purely defensive, while the other side’s were perceived as offensive. The world cannot survive many crises of that magnitude, so it behooves us to better understand Russia’s current perspective. Yesterday, the Russian news service Interfax carried the following article with the headline, “USA, NATO Not Planning Attack But Still Pose Risk To Russia:” Continue reading
Defusing the Nuclear Threat 