Monthly Archives: November 2012

Poking the Russian Bear – Again

Posted on November 25, 2012 by Martin Hellman

There have been some important new developments on the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, which has an impact on nuclear risk. Most Americans don’t even know that this 1974 relic of the Cold War even exists, but it is frequently cited in the … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged cold war, deterrence, international relations, Jackson-Vanik, Magnitsky, martin hellman, nuclear deterrence, nuclear risk, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, russia, stanford | 2 Comments

War Games and Nuclear Risk

Posted on November 25, 2012 by Martin Hellman

One way to apply risk analysis to a potential failure of nuclear deterrence is to decompose a catastrophic failure into four steps and estimate the risk of each step: Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Caspar Weinberger, deterrence, international relations, martin hellman, nuclear deterrence, nuclear proliferation, nuclear risk, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, Paul Bracken, proud prophet, stanford, The Second Nuclear Age, war games | 1 Comment

Who Done It?

Posted on November 20, 2012 by Martin Hellman

Who wrote JFK’s “airstrike speech?” Kennedy’s usual speechwriter, Ted Sorensen, emphatically denied writing it: Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged airstrike speech, cuban missile crisis, deterrence, jfk, martin hellman, nuclear deterrence, nuclear risk, stanford, ted sorensen, war and peace | Leave a comment

JFK’s Airstrike Speech

Posted on November 16, 2012 by Martin Hellman

How would the Cuban Missile Crisis have played out if President Kennedy, instead of a naval blockade, had ordered air strikes to destroy the missiles, followed by an invasion of Cuba? Would I be here to write this post, or you to read it? Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged cold war, cuban missile crisis, deterrence, jfk, JFK air strike speech, JFK airstrike speech, John F. Kennedy, martin hellman, nuclear deterrence, nuclear risk, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, stanford | 10 Comments

US Creates Nuclear Trip Wire in Poland

Posted on November 10, 2012 by Martin Hellman

The U.S. Air Force officially stationed a small detachment of soldiers at a base here in central Poland on Friday, part of Washington’s bid to reassure an important European ally without jeopardizing ties with Russia. … The move was touted by Poland’s government, which has for years asked for a U.S. military presence to protect the former Eastern Bloc country from a resurgent Russia. Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged deterrence, Georgian war, martin hellman, NATO, nuclear deterrence, nuclear risk, nuclear trip wire, nuclear war, poland, stanford, war and peace | 2 Comments