Monthly Archives: November 2012

Poking the Russian Bear – Again

There have been some important new developments on the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, which has an impact on nuclear risk. Most Americans don’t even know that this 1974 relic of the Cold War even exists, but it is frequently cited in the … Continue reading

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War Games and Nuclear Risk

One way to apply risk analysis to a potential failure of nuclear deterrence is to decompose a catastrophic failure into four steps and estimate the risk of each step: Continue reading

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Who Done It?

Who wrote JFK’s “airstrike speech?” Kennedy’s usual speechwriter, Ted Sorensen, emphatically denied writing it: Continue reading

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JFK’s Airstrike Speech

How would the Cuban Missile Crisis have played out if President Kennedy, instead of a naval blockade, had ordered air strikes to destroy the missiles, followed by an invasion of Cuba? Would I be here to write this post, or you to read it? Continue reading

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US Creates Nuclear Trip Wire in Poland

The U.S. Air Force officially stationed a small detachment of soldiers at a base here in central Poland on Friday, part of Washington’s bid to reassure an important European ally without jeopardizing ties with Russia. … The move was touted by Poland’s government, which has for years asked for a U.S. military presence to protect the former Eastern Bloc country from a resurgent Russia. Continue reading

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