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Tag Archives: russia
Playing Russian Roulette in Ukraine
The risk of the war in Ukraine escalating to a full-scale nuclear war is far greater than our nation realizes. While it is impossible to quantify that risk precisely, I estimate that it is roughly comparable to pulling the trigger … Continue reading
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Tagged nuclear risk, russia, stanford, ukraine, war and peace
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Turkey Shoots Down Russian Jet: Part 3
My last blog post recommended amending Article V of the NATO Charter so that only unprovoked attacks on one NATO nation would be considered an attack on them all. If it turns out that Turkey’s shooting down a Russian jet on November 24 was unwarranted, do we really want to start World War III should Russia shoot down a Turkish fighter in a future such encounter? Continue reading
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Tagged critical thinking, ISIS, martin hellman, nuclear risk, nuclear war, oil smuggling, russia, stanford, Turkey, war and peace
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Turkey Shoots Down Russian Jet: Part 2
Yesterday’s post noted that none of the seven major news outlets I had looked at regarding Turkey’s shooting down a Russian fighter mentioned the nuclear dimension to the risk. Today’s New York Times and Wall Street Journal coverage bring the number to nine. They also provide some important details that help explain what happened. Continue reading
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Tagged martin hellman, NATO, nuclear risk, nuclear war, russia, stanford, syria, Turkey
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Turkey Shoots Downs Russian Jet: What Happens Next?
Today’s news that Turkish fighters shot down a Russian jet, killing at least one of the pilots, is unlikely to lead to a nuclear crisis … but there is a chance that it could. If Russia had shot down one of the Turkish planes – or were to do so in a future such encounter – we would be bound by Article 5 of the NATO Treaty to treat it the same as an attack on one of our own aircraft. Continue reading
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Tagged cuban missile crisis, martin hellman, NATO, nuclear risk, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, russia, syria, Turkey, war and peace
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Is the US Still Encouraging Islamic Militants to Attack Russia?
Back in the 1980s, the US armed and trained Islamic militants in their battle against the Soviets in Afghanistan, with President Reagan’s mistakenly seeing the mujahideen as “courageous Afghan freedom fighters,” instead of the violent, anti-Western extremists we now know them to be. I don’t know if our nation is still encouraging Islamic militants to attack Russia, but that certainly is the impression a Russian reader would get from a front page article in today’s New York Times that interviewed Chechens now fighting Russian separatists and “volunteers” in Ukraine. Continue reading
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Tagged Chechen, critical thinking, martin hellman, New York Times, nuclear risk, russia, stanford, ukraine
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Russia’s Alleged INF Violation
I’ve been looking for an objective and authoritative explanation of the US allegation that Russia is in violation of the INF (Intermediate Nuclear Forces) arms control treaty … and I just found it. My colleague, Dr. Pavel Podvig, has precisely that kind of analysis in his article in the current issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Here are some key excerpts (emphasis added): Continue reading
Understanding the Ukrainian Crisis
Much has been said in our media about Putin’s propaganda war, and I agree that an information war is in progress over the Ukrainian crisis. But it is not one-sided. We, too, have blind spots, andwiththe following two misconceptions being the source of many of our errors: Continue reading
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Tagged information war, martin hellman, nuclear risk, propaganda, putin, russia, stanford, ukraine
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Avoiding a Repeat of the 1962 Cuban Crisis
I highly recommend Prof. Rajan Menon’s article in The National Interest, Avoiding a New ‘Cuban Missile Crisis’ in Ukraine. I’ve attached a few key paragraphs below my signature line, and encourage you to read the full article. This fits well with the risk analysis approach I’ve been recommending for analyzing nuclear deterrence and reducing the danger that it might fail. Continue reading
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Tagged cuban missile crisis, martin hellman, nuclear risk, putin, Rajan Menon, russia, ukraine
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Solving “a Riddle Wrapped in a Mystery Inside an Enigma”
UPDATE MAY 2017: FOR MORE, SURPRISING INFORMATION LIKE THIS, DOWNLOAD A FREE PDF OF MY NEW BOOK AND SEE THE SECTION ON RUSSIA. Most people have heard Winston Churchill’s description of Russia as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside … Continue reading
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Tagged churchill, critical thinking, enigma, iran, martin hellman, mystery, north korea, nuclear risk, riddle, russia, stanford, war and peace
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Could the US Resolve the Ukrainian Crisis By Doing Less?
Back on February 8, 2014, twelve days before the Kiev massacre which led to President Yanukovych fleeing to Russia, Ronald Reagan’s Ambassador to Moscow Jack Matlock wrote very presciently, “Ukraine’s most serious problems are internal, not external. They must be solved by Ukrainians, not by outsiders. … I believe it has been a very big strategic mistake – by Russia, by the EU and most of all by the U.S. – to convert Ukrainian political and economic reform into an East-West struggle.” A recent poll confirms Ambassador Matlock’s perspective. Continue reading
Defusing the Nuclear Threat 