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Tag Archives: cuban missile crisis
Turkey Shoots Downs Russian Jet: What Happens Next?
Today’s news that Turkish fighters shot down a Russian jet, killing at least one of the pilots, is unlikely to lead to a nuclear crisis … but there is a chance that it could. If Russia had shot down one of the Turkish planes – or were to do so in a future such encounter – we would be bound by Article 5 of the NATO Treaty to treat it the same as an attack on one of our own aircraft. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged cuban missile crisis, martin hellman, NATO, nuclear risk, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, russia, syria, Turkey, war and peace
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Avoiding a Repeat of the 1962 Cuban Crisis
I highly recommend Prof. Rajan Menon’s article in The National Interest, Avoiding a New ‘Cuban Missile Crisis’ in Ukraine. I’ve attached a few key paragraphs below my signature line, and encourage you to read the full article. This fits well with the risk analysis approach I’ve been recommending for analyzing nuclear deterrence and reducing the danger that it might fail. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged cuban missile crisis, martin hellman, nuclear risk, putin, Rajan Menon, russia, ukraine
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Time to Stop Playing Nuclear Roulette
In Russian roulette, there’s one chance in six you’ll be killed – if you pull the trigger only once. If you pull it once a day, or even once a year, it’s not a question of IF you’ll be killed, only WHEN. After the Cuban Missile Crisis, Pres. Kennedy said he thought the odds of war were somewhere between 1-in-3 and even. If he was right, that crisis was equivalent to playing nuclear roulette – a global version of Russian roulette – with a 2- or 3-chambered revolver. Fortunately, most events have a much smaller chance of escalating to nuclear war, but even a small probability per event can add up to an unacceptable risk if repeated often enough. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged china, critical thinking, cuban missile crisis, Diaoyu, japan, martin hellman, Senkaku, stanford, war and peace
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An Important Leap Forward in US National Security
US national security took an important, but little noted leap forward yesterday when President Obama announced the restoration of full diplomatic relations with Cuba. Most of the media coverage focused on the economic and political consequences of this bold move, and what little I’ve seen on its national security implications quotes opponents as calling it “appeasement.” This is a clear reference to Britain’s vain attempts to mollify Hitler prior to World War II, and therefore an attempt to slam Obama’s move as naive and dangerous. So why do I maintain that his move did the opposite and, instead, dramatically improved our national security? Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged critical thinking, Cuba, cuban missile crisis, martin hellman, nuclear risk, nuclear weapons, Obama, stanford
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Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 6: North Korea
Over the last few months, North Korea has severely tested the world’s patience. It conducted its third nuclear test, canceled the armistice ending the Korean War, threatened the US with nuclear ruin, warned foreigners to leave the country because war was imminent, cut its hotline with South Korea, and readied a missile for firing. This shrill, irrational behavior seems to confirm the conventional wisdom that North Korea is a rogue nation, run by a nut job – end of story. In that perspective, there is little we can do other than hope that our military power deters them from following through on their hair-brained threats. While there is truth in that perspective, it pays to examine some other hypotheses which, if true, would give us more effective options for reducing the risk of a needless war. Continue reading
Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 5: Operation Northwoods
Operation Northwoods is a prime example of why we need to raise critical questions before going to war. Written seven months before the Cuban Missile Crisis, this formerly top secret proposal by the Joint Chiefs of Staff suggested ways to build public support for an American invasion of Cuba, including: “A ‘Remember the Maine’ incident could be arranged … We could blow up a US ship in Guantanamo Bay and blame Cuba. … [Or] we could develop a Communist Cuban terror campaign in the Miami area, in other Florida cities and even in Washington. … [fostering] attempts on lives of Cuban refugees in the United States even to the extent of wounding.” Continue reading
Who Done It?
Who wrote JFK’s “airstrike speech?” Kennedy’s usual speechwriter, Ted Sorensen, emphatically denied writing it: Continue reading
JFK’s Airstrike Speech
How would the Cuban Missile Crisis have played out if President Kennedy, instead of a naval blockade, had ordered air strikes to destroy the missiles, followed by an invasion of Cuba? Would I be here to write this post, or you to read it? Continue reading
Dangerous Liaisons
Friday’s New York Times had an OpEd which highlights how superpower allies can threaten the national security, and even the existence, of their patrons. The article explains how, in 1962, Fidel Castro’s conviction that the US was dedicated to regime … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Castro, critical thinking, cuban missile crisis, deterrence, Kennedy, Khrushchev, martin hellman, nuclear deterrence, nuclear risk
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Poking the Russian Bear and Baiting the Chinese Dragon
In my seminar on “Nuclear Weapons, Risk, and Hope,” I emphasize the need for paying attention to early warning signs before a disaster involving nuclear weapons occurs. For example, in one of my course handouts, I identify six key steps that led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, and demonstrate how, by July 2008, we had repeated five and a half of those mistakes. Continue reading
Defusing the Nuclear Threat 