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Tag Archives: nuclear proliferation
Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea: The Real Story
The media tells us that nuclear diplomacy with North Korea is a waste of time, as do most high officials from every recent US administration. But easily verifiable facts show otherwise. The most important data point: North Korea did not … Continue reading
North Korea’s Nuclear Test
A post concerning North Korea’s latest nuclear test is on my new website for the book my wife and I just completed. I’ve included the lead-in here and encourage you to read the whole post on that website. Continue reading
Responding to North Korea’s Fourth Nuclear Test
Tonight’s PBS Newshour covered North Korea’s fourth nuclear test that occurred earlier today. Wendy Sherman, former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs and advisor to Hillary Clinton’s campaign, called for further sanctions “to ensure that we not allow North Korea to blackmail the international community, but that we take resolute action to tell them, this is not acceptable.” The only problem with her call to action is that it is more of the same that has gotten us nowhere over the last thirteen years. Continue reading
US Hawks Unwittingly Aid Iranian Hardliners
While it is the opposite of their intent, hawks in the US who suggest attacking Iran provide ammunition to Iran’s hardliners, including those who want to develop nuclear weapons. The most recent example to come to my attention is a radio interview in which Senator Tom Cotton argued that “if military action were required … it would [not involve boots on the ground, only] several days of air and naval bombing.” Continue reading
Creating Chaos: Time to Learn From Our Mistakes
Yesterday’s New York Times had an article noting that the head of the UN Mission in Libya fears “the country is very close to total chaos.” Islamic fundamentalist insurgents took control of Tripoli last summer, forcing what remains of the government into exile in Tobruk, and things have only gotten worse since then. Back in 2011, when we started military action which eventually led to the murder of Muammar Gaddafi, I warned of Libyan Blowback, Libyan Delusions, and the largely overlooked nuclear proliferation incentives we created by attacking a regime Pres. Bush had welcomed back into the family of nations when it gave up its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Yet, with most American officials still maintaining that “Assad has to go,” we seem not to have learned our lesson. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged afghanistan, critical thinking, libya, martin hellman, nuclear proliferation, nuclear risk, stanford, syria, war and peace
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Foreign Policy Lessons Applied to Iran
Harvard Professor of International Relations Stephen M. Walt has an excellent article at Foreign Policy, entitled “The Top 5 Foreign Policy Lessons of the Past 20 Years.” I’ve included some short excerpts after my signature line, and encourage you to read … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged critical thinking, iran, martin hellman, nuclear proliferation, nuclear weapons, Stephen Walt, war and peace
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More “Strategic Insanity”?
Several of my past posts have mentioned a March 2013 article in which the highly respected Russian international relations expert Fyodor Lukyanov explained why his government is convinced that the US is engaged in “strategic insanity.”* While a recent article co-authored by my colleague and former Director of Los Alamos Dr. Siegfried Hecker doesn’t accuse our government of yet more strategic insanity, the situation he describes comes close to meeting that definition: Continue reading
Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 7: Afghanistan
Our October 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, less than a month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, might seem like an unavoidable war because the Taliban had sheltered Osama bin Laden, and we could not afford to risk a repeat of that disaster. But a more careful analysis shows that our Afghan war, like the others examined in this series, could have been avoided. The trick is not to start the analysis in 2001, but in December 1979, when we started to arm jihadists who were fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan. One of them was Osama bin Laden. Continue reading
Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 6: North Korea
Over the last few months, North Korea has severely tested the world’s patience. It conducted its third nuclear test, canceled the armistice ending the Korean War, threatened the US with nuclear ruin, warned foreigners to leave the country because war was imminent, cut its hotline with South Korea, and readied a missile for firing. This shrill, irrational behavior seems to confirm the conventional wisdom that North Korea is a rogue nation, run by a nut job – end of story. In that perspective, there is little we can do other than hope that our military power deters them from following through on their hair-brained threats. While there is truth in that perspective, it pays to examine some other hypotheses which, if true, would give us more effective options for reducing the risk of a needless war. Continue reading
Defusing the Nuclear Threat 