Russian Chief of Staff: Risk of Nuclear War Increasing

The following is an excerpt from  Komsomolskaya Pravda, December 28, 2011, page 12: Addressing the Public House not long ago, Chief of the General Staff Nikolai Makarov announced that the probability of a war near the Russian borders, including a nuclear war, had greatly increased over the last several years. … Here is an interview with Mikhail Barabanov, Center for Analysis of Strategies and Techniques Assistant Director and Moscow Defense Brief Editor-in-Chief. …

Palm Trees Sprout in Moscow

Moscow demonstrations protesting recent elections didn’t portray Russia as heading toward another revolution, so Fox News substituted video footage of violent demonstrations in Athens, complete with scenes of streets on fire. A major clue was the appearance of palm trees in Moscow. This blatant propaganda – dismissed by Fox News as an accident – is particularly dangerous in light of John McCain’s incendiary warnings that Vladimir Putin could end up meeting Gaddafi’s fate. While Gaddafi was killed by Libyan rebels, Western airpower was essential in allowing that to happen, making Russian fears about the West’s intentions seem less paranoid.

McCain Threatens Putin

Today’s Moscow News quotes Senator John McCain as warning Putin that he could meet Gaddafi’s fate. I was so shocked by such an incendiary remark from a former presidential candidate that I checked out the alleged threat on McCain’s Twitter feed. Sure enough, yesterday McCain tweeted, “Dear Vlad, the Arab Spring is coming to a neighborhood near you.” Later (presumably after this Moscow News article appeared), he tweeted again, “The Post agrees: ‘Spring is in the Russian air’” with a link to a Washington Post article reporting on demonstrations by Russians opposed to Putin.

Ex-Spymaster on Iranian Nuclear Threat

In a recent interview, retired four-star admiral and former head of the super-secret NSA, Adm. Bobby Inman, portrays a very different Iranian threat from the usual – and a very different approach for dealing with Iran successfully. NSA stands for National Security Agency, but is so secretive that Beltway jokes say it stands for “No Such Agency” and “Never Say Anything.” With NSA having a larger budget and more personnel than the better known CIA, it could be said that Adm. Inman served as America’s top spymaster. Hitches as Deputy Director of the CIA and Director of Naval Intelligence add to the evidence for granting him that title. When Bobby Inman speaks, people should listen – especially when he contradicts conventional wisdom that could get us into a needless war. Here are some key excerpts from the interview concerning Iran:

Russian Military Chief Sees Increasing Risk of Nuclear War

MOSCOW (AP) — Russia’s chief military officer says the nation is facing an increased threat of being drawn into conflicts at its borders that may grow into an all-out nuclear war. Gen. Nikolai Makarov, chief of the General Staff, pointed at NATO’s expansion eastward and said Thursday that the risks for Russia to be pulled into local conflicts have “risen sharply.” He added, according to Russian news agencies wires, that “under certain conditions local and regional conflicts may develop into a full-scale war involving nuclear weapons.” [end of AP dispatch]

Challenging Russia to Fight

Speaker of the House John Boehner is second in line for the presidency, after Vice President Biden. That highlights the danger of his recent speech that comes dangerously close to challenging Russia to a fight. Boehner’s web site prefaces the speech by noting, “In remarks at the Heritage Foundation today, Congressman John Boehner (R-West Chester) discussed the need to reassert American exceptionalism in the U.S.-Russia relationship.” Here are the key parts of what he had to say:

The Nuclear Cookie Jar

Back in June 2010, I had a post entitled “Is Our Hand in the Nuclear Cookie Jar?” which made an analogy between our missile defense plans and a toddler having her hand in the cookie jar while asserting that she wasn’t taking a cookie. Unfortunately, we continue to risk creating a Russian-American crisis by maintaining that Russia has nothing to fear from our plans, but refusing to put that in writing and taking other actions that make it look like our hand is in the nuclear cookie jar. (See that earlier post for one scenario on how a crisis could unfold.)

Heading for Another Cuban Missile Crisis?

My last post warned that our current approach to missile defense has the potential to ignite a new Cuban crisis, comparable to that of 1962, something I also had warned of in a post back in 2008. So imagine my surprise and concern when, soon after completing that post, I came acros an article in RT (formerly Russia Today) entitled US and Russia: heading for another ‘Cuban missile crisis?’

Russian-American Relations: Reset or Reload?

Yesterday’s issue of the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that our Ambassador-designate to Russia, Michael McFaul, was “one of the authors of the American-Russian reload.” I was familiar with President Obama’s efforts to reset Russian-American relations, so this seemed like an ominous new direction, especially for our ambassador to Russia. Fortunately, web searching showed that reload was used in some Russian accounts to mean reset, and was corrected in the version of the Kommersant article linked to above. But, for reasons given below, an important question still remains: “Are we resetting or reloading our relationship with Russia?”

Please Help!

Society has repeatedly rejected even minor changes in our nuclear weapons posture as too risky, even though the baseline risk of our current strategy is unknown. To plug that gaping hole in our national security, please sign our petition asking Congress to authorize a National Academies study of the potential risks posed by nuclear weapons, both from nuclear terrorism and nuclear war. Unlike ratifying a treaty, where ⅔ of the Senate is required, a single, interested congressional representative can make this happen, so we have a real shot at success if you will help.