This blog has been inactive since June 2019. I am primarily using Twitter to communicate, where I am @MartinHellman2. But, in a few minutes, I’ll be putting up a new post here on Ukraine. In the meantime, here are some of my recent tweets:
5/13/22 As this article makes clear, the problem is not just Russia’s horrific actions in Ukraine. It is the mentality of war—especially dangerous in the nuclear age. What is our goal in Ukraine, punishing Putin or minimizing human suffering & nuclear risk?
5/7/22 Another excellent Tom Friedman editorial. How would we have responded if Russia had helped Assad sink an American ship or kill American generals? Might Putin do similarly? We need to help Ukraine, but not light a match too close to the nuclear tinderbox.
5/4/22 Read Tom Friedman’s excellent editorial: “Our goal began simple and should stay simple: Help Ukrainians fight as long as they have the will and help them negotiate when they feel the time is right … Freelance beyond that and we invite trouble.”
4/22/22 My friend and colleague, Prof. Benoit Pelopidas of Sciences Po, speaks about his book, Rethinking Nuclear Choices. The book is out in French, but not yet in English, so this is a real treat for those who don’t speak French. Start at 15:50 on this podcast.
3/18/22 Anatol Lieven, whose namesake grandfather fought for Latvian independence, explains why “Ukraine has won the war.”
3/8/22 Former SecDef Bill Perry agrees with my estimate that the risk of a major nuclear war is roughly 1% per year in “normal” times. The war in Ukraine has increased that to roughly 10% per year. Unfortunately, a prescient financial analyst agrees.
3/8/22 For those wanting to see why I estimate that the risk of a major nuclear war is roughly 1% per year in “normal” times.