Nassim Taleb published his book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, in 2007, a year before the financial meltdown made him an even larger fortune than he’d already amassed by refusing to follow the herd. A passage that is only 46 words long conveys a critically important lesson for the nuclear age:
The increased concentration among banks seems to have the effect of making financial crises less likely, but when they happen they are more global in scale and hit us very hard. … True, we now have fewer failures, but when they occur… I shiver at the thought.
Nuclear weapons seem to have the effect of making global war less likely. True, we now have fewer failures, but when one occurs … I shiver at the thought.
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