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Tag Archives: Hellman
Believing Our Own BS
In business, a company gets into trouble when it starts believing its own BS. The same is true for a nation, except there “bankruptcy” can mean war, possibly nuclear. To prevent needless wars and ultimately to save the planet, we … Continue reading
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Tagged Hellman, iran, korea, north korea, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, stanford, war and peace
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North Korea’s Nuclear Test
A post concerning North Korea’s latest nuclear test is on my new website for the book my wife and I just completed. I’ve included the lead-in here and encourage you to read the whole post on that website. Continue reading
Poking the Russian Bear and Baiting the Chinese Dragon
In my seminar on “Nuclear Weapons, Risk, and Hope,” I emphasize the need for paying attention to early warning signs before a disaster involving nuclear weapons occurs. For example, in one of my course handouts, I identify six key steps that led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, and demonstrate how, by July 2008, we had repeated five and a half of those mistakes. Continue reading
How Logical is Nuclear Deterrence? Part 8
Logical thinking should determine the size our arsenal. Yet, as we will see below, that number has been determined in a highly irrational manner which “frightened the devil” out of President Eisenhower and continues to be applied today. Continue reading
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Tagged arms control, arms race, critical thinking, deterrence, Gen. James Cartwright, George Kistiakowsky, Global Zero, Hellman, martin hellman, New START, nuclear, nuclear deterrence, nuclear illogic, nuclear logic, nuclear posture, nuclear risk, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, President Eisenhower, stanford
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How Logical is Nuclear Deterrence? Part 7
Military officers are trained to fight wars, while the only rational use for nuclear weapons would be to prevent war. Putting nuclear weapons under the command of military officers therefore introduces the risk that logic which applies to conventional weapons will be misapplied to nuclear weapons. General Thomas Power, Commander-in-Chief of the Strategic Air Command (SAC) from 1957 to 1964 appears to have committed exactly that error. Continue reading
How Logical is Nuclear Deterrence? Part 6
Drug or alcohol abuse is another potential source of irrationality in nuclear deterrence. This problem has affected a number of top nuclear decision makers, including JFK, Richard Nixon, Boris Yeltsin, and Tony Blair. Continue reading
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Tagged alcohol abuse, amphetamines, boris yeltsin, deterrence, drug abuse, Hellman, henry kissinger, jfk, JFK amphetamine use, john kennedy, martin hellman, max jacobson, miracle max, nixon's drinking, nuclear deterrence, nuclear illogic, nuclear logic, nuclear risk, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, richard nixon
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How Logical is Nuclear Deterrence? Part 5
The last two installments in this series dealt with President Nixon’s deliberate, conscious incorporation of irrationality into nuclear deterrence. This installment deals with an unintended risk: Nixon’s suicidal ideation in the final months of his presidency, as Watergate pulled him down. Continue reading
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Tagged alexander haig, critical thinking, david eisenhower, deterrence, edward cox, Hellman, martin hellman, nuclear, nuclear deterrence, nuclear illogic, nuclear logic, nuclear posture, nuclear risk, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, richard nixon, stanford, suicide, war and peace
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How Logical is Nuclear Deterrence? Part 4
The previous installment in this series quoted President Nixon as advocating “unpredictable, even rash” presidential behavior in order to “win another hand” at nuclear poker. He employed exactly that approach during his first year in office in what has become known as the “Madman Nuclear Alert.” Continue reading
How Logical is Nuclear Deterrence? Part 3
President Nixon believed that irrationality played an important role in nuclear deterrence: “If the adversary feels that you are unpredictable, even rash, he will be deterred from pressing you too far. The odds that he will fold will increase and the unpredictable president will win another hand.” [1] As with the first two parts in this series, this thinking overlooks what happens if both sides succumb to such thinking.
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The Myth of Nuclear Safety
In memory of the first anniversary of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear meltdown, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda acknowledged that his government had failed by believing in “a myth of safety” about nuclear power. Before an even worse tragedy befalls us, we need to recognize that society labors under a similarly dangerous myth regarding the safety afforded by nuclear weapons. Political and military leaders, routinely talk of maintaining a safe, secure nuclear arsenal, as if saying that makes it so. Continue reading
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Tagged deterrence, Hellman, martin hellman, nuclear deterrence, nuclear risk, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, stanford
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Defusing the Nuclear Threat 