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Tag Archives: international relations
Are We Encouraging a Japanese Nuclear Weapons Program?
One of the last things we should do is empower those in Japan who would like to develop their own nuclear weapons. Yet, we are doing that because we have not thought through the long term consequences of our actions. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged china, critical thinking, deterrence, Diaoyu, international relations, japan, martin hellman, nuclear deterrence, nuclear posture, nuclear proliferation, nuclear risk, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, Senkaku, Shintaro Ishihara, Shinzo Abe, stanford, war and peace
1 Comment
Poking the Russian Bear, An Update
As noted in my November 25 posting, “Poking the Russian Bear — Again,” the Jackson-Vanik Amendment has been a needless, major irritant in Russian-American relations for decades, but also became an economic burden to America when Russia acceded to the World Trade Organization this summer. Rather than just repeal Jackson-Vanik as an outdated relic of the Cold War, both houses of Congress have now merged that action with passage of the so-called Magnitsky Bill – trading one poke in Russia’s eye for another. Continue reading
Poking the Russian Bear – Again
There have been some important new developments on the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, which has an impact on nuclear risk. Most Americans don’t even know that this 1974 relic of the Cold War even exists, but it is frequently cited in the … Continue reading
War Games and Nuclear Risk
One way to apply risk analysis to a potential failure of nuclear deterrence is to decompose a catastrophic failure into four steps and estimate the risk of each step: Continue reading
Another Early Warning Sign
My post of two days ago showed that, if you are watching for them, early warning signs of potential nuclear disasters often can be seen, and catastrophe averted. As a current day example, I noted the dispute between Japan and … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged china, critical thinking, deterrence, Diaoyu, international relations, japan, martin hellman, nuclear risk, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, Senkaku, stanford, war and peace
2 Comments
Censorship in Russia?
The American mainstream media tends to give the impression that Russia under Putin is not that different from the good ole USSR. Having visited the Soviet Union a number of times prior to Gorbachev’s reforms and keeping abreast of the Russian press today, I know how false that picture is. Before censorship was lifted, the only honest political discussions I could have with my Russian friends was when no other Russians were present, and we were out of range of any possible, hidden microphones (e.g., in my hotel room). Compare that to an article in yesterday’s Moscow Times, which reads in part: Continue reading
Missile Defense: Two perspectives
My friend and colleague, Dr. Pavel Podvig, has always provided an interesting perspective on Russian-American relations, especially those concerned with military issues. Born and educated in Russia — he has a Ph.D. in Physics from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology — he also has spent considerable time at MIT, Princeton, and Stanford. His current posting on missile defense is no exception. Here are some key excerpts: Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged deterrence, international relations, martin hellman, missile defense, NATO, nuclear risk, pavel podvig, stanford
1 Comment
Former General and Ambassador Asks Insightful Questions
Last week, I was privileged to hear my friend and colleague, Ambassador Karl Eikenberry, speak on the future of the American military at Stanford University’s annual Payne Lecture. Given that he is a retired three-star general and former ambassador to Kabul, what he said will probably surprise you. Stanford’s news service has a more complete write-up of his talk, but here are the key excerpts: Continue reading
North Korea’s Nuclear Deterrent
In a recent interview, former Director of Los Alamos Siegfried Hecker made an important observation about North Korea’s nuclear weapons: “I do not believe that North Korea’s leadership has any plans to bomb the United States, its assets or allies. However, it wants to hold U.S. interests at risk of a nuclear attack to deter us from regime change and to create international leverage and diplomatic maneuvering room.” Continue reading
