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Tag Archives: critical thinking
Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 7: Afghanistan
Our October 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, less than a month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, might seem like an unavoidable war because the Taliban had sheltered Osama bin Laden, and we could not afford to risk a repeat of that disaster. But a more careful analysis shows that our Afghan war, like the others examined in this series, could have been avoided. The trick is not to start the analysis in 2001, but in December 1979, when we started to arm jihadists who were fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan. One of them was Osama bin Laden. Continue reading
Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 6: North Korea
Over the last few months, North Korea has severely tested the world’s patience. It conducted its third nuclear test, canceled the armistice ending the Korean War, threatened the US with nuclear ruin, warned foreigners to leave the country because war was imminent, cut its hotline with South Korea, and readied a missile for firing. This shrill, irrational behavior seems to confirm the conventional wisdom that North Korea is a rogue nation, run by a nut job – end of story. In that perspective, there is little we can do other than hope that our military power deters them from following through on their hair-brained threats. While there is truth in that perspective, it pays to examine some other hypotheses which, if true, would give us more effective options for reducing the risk of a needless war. Continue reading
Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 2: The Second Gulf of Tonkin Incident
The first and second Gulf of Tonkin incidents, on August 2 and August 4, 1964, provided the legal basis for the Viet Nam war, yet neither was the “unprovoked aggression” that the Johnson administration portrayed them to be. Continue reading
Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 1: The First Gulf of Tonkin Incident
There’s an old saying: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” But what should the saying be when the American public is fooled repeatedly, at a cost of millions of lives? Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged critical thinking, gulf of tonkin incident, Herrick, maddox, martin hellman, nuclear risk, nuclear war, stanford, turner joy, Vietnam, Vietnam War, war and peace
1 Comment
US Unwittingly Encouraging North Korea’s Nuclear Program
While encouraging nuclear proliferation is one of the last things we want to do, we couldn’t be doing a better job if we tried. Every time we engage in regime change, we give would-be proliferators one more reason to seek nuclear weapons of their own. What other way do they have of deterring our much more powerful military from toppling them at some future date? Continue reading
Are We Encouraging a Japanese Nuclear Weapons Program?
One of the last things we should do is empower those in Japan who would like to develop their own nuclear weapons. Yet, we are doing that because we have not thought through the long term consequences of our actions. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged china, critical thinking, deterrence, Diaoyu, international relations, japan, martin hellman, nuclear deterrence, nuclear posture, nuclear proliferation, nuclear risk, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, Senkaku, Shintaro Ishihara, Shinzo Abe, stanford, war and peace
1 Comment
Reagan Adviser Critiques Iraq War
Wow! Ronald Reagan’s former Ambassador to Moscow doesn’t blog very often, but has had two real zingers in the last two days. His newest post “Did We Really Win in Iraq?” starts off by saying … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged critical thinking, iran, iraq war, Jack Matlock, martin hellman, stanford, war and peace
1 Comment
Dangerous Liaisons
Friday’s New York Times had an OpEd which highlights how superpower allies can threaten the national security, and even the existence, of their patrons. The article explains how, in 1962, Fidel Castro’s conviction that the US was dedicated to regime … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Castro, critical thinking, cuban missile crisis, deterrence, Kennedy, Khrushchev, martin hellman, nuclear deterrence, nuclear risk
1 Comment
Another Early Warning Sign
My post of two days ago showed that, if you are watching for them, early warning signs of potential nuclear disasters often can be seen, and catastrophe averted. As a current day example, I noted the dispute between Japan and … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged china, critical thinking, deterrence, Diaoyu, international relations, japan, martin hellman, nuclear risk, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, Senkaku, stanford, war and peace
2 Comments
