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	<title>Defusing the Nuclear Threat</title>
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	<description>You are the key to defusing the nuclear threat.</description>
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		<title>Defusing the Nuclear Threat</title>
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		<title>Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 7: Afghanistan</title>
		<link>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/05/09/avoiding-needless-wars-part-7-afghanistan/</link>
		<comments>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/05/09/avoiding-needless-wars-part-7-afghanistan/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 May 2013 07:04:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nuclear Risk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[afghanistan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[critical thinking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[From the Shadows]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ghost Wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[martin hellman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[needless wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear proliferation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear weapons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pakistan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Gates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war and peace]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[William Casey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zbigniew Brzezinski]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/?p=1451</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Our October 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, less than a month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, might seem like an unavoidable war because the Taliban had sheltered Osama bin Laden, and we could not afford to risk a repeat of that disaster. But a more careful analysis shows that our Afghan war, like the others examined in this series, could have been avoided. The trick is not to start the analysis in 2001, but in December 1979, when we started to arm jihadists who were fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan. One of them was Osama bin Laden. <a href="http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/05/09/avoiding-needless-wars-part-7-afghanistan/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nuclearrisk.wordpress.com&#038;blog=13305877&#038;post=1451&#038;subd=nuclearrisk&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
	
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		<title>Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 6: North Korea</title>
		<link>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/04/15/avoiding-needless-wars-part-6-north-korea/</link>
		<comments>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/04/15/avoiding-needless-wars-part-6-north-korea/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Apr 2013 00:51:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nuclear Risk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[critical thinking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cuban missile crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deterrence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[korea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[martin hellman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[needless wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[north korea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear deterrence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear proliferation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear weapons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stanford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war and peace]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/?p=1438</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the last few months, North Korea has severely tested the world’s patience. It conducted its third nuclear test, canceled the armistice ending the Korean War, threatened the US with nuclear ruin, warned foreigners to leave the country because war was imminent, cut its hotline with South Korea, and readied a missile for firing. This shrill, irrational behavior seems to confirm the conventional wisdom that North Korea is a rogue nation, run by a nut job – end of story. In that perspective, there is little we can do other than hope that our military power deters them from following through on their hair-brained threats. While there is truth in that perspective, it pays to examine some other hypotheses which, if true, would give us more effective options for reducing the risk of a needless war.  <a href="http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/04/15/avoiding-needless-wars-part-6-north-korea/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nuclearrisk.wordpress.com&#038;blog=13305877&#038;post=1438&#038;subd=nuclearrisk&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>11</slash:comments>
	
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		<title>Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 5: Operation Northwoods</title>
		<link>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/30/avoiding-needless-wars-part-5-operation-northwoods/</link>
		<comments>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/30/avoiding-needless-wars-part-5-operation-northwoods/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Mar 2013 07:45:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nuclear Risk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Castro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cuban missile crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John F. Kennedy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Khrushchev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[martin hellman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[McGeorge Bundy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[needless wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear weapons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operation Northwoods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert F. Kennedy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stanford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war and peace]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/?p=1417</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Operation Northwoods is a prime example of why we need to raise critical questions before going to war. Written seven months before the Cuban Missile Crisis, this formerly top secret proposal by the Joint Chiefs of Staff suggested ways to build public support for an American invasion of Cuba, including: “A ‘Remember the Maine’ incident could be arranged … We could blow up a US ship in Guantanamo Bay and blame Cuba. … [Or] we could develop a Communist Cuban terror campaign in the Miami area, in other Florida cities and even in Washington. … [fostering] attempts on lives of Cuban refugees in the United States even to the extent of wounding.” <a href="http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/30/avoiding-needless-wars-part-5-operation-northwoods/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nuclearrisk.wordpress.com&#038;blog=13305877&#038;post=1417&#038;subd=nuclearrisk&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
	
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		<title>Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 4: Nixon’s Madman Nuclear Alert</title>
		<link>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/29/avoiding-needless-wars-part-4-nixons-madman-nuclear-alert/</link>
		<comments>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/29/avoiding-needless-wars-part-4-nixons-madman-nuclear-alert/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Mar 2013 18:41:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nuclear Risk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deterrence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeremi Suri]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[martin hellman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[needless wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nixon's madman nuclear alert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nixon's Madman Theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear deterrence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear weapons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Sagan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stanford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vietnam War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war and peace]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/?p=1404</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The first three installments in this series of posts drew on irrefutable evidence – formerly classified top secret documents and a recording of a presidential phone call – to show that the public needs to critically question government claims before going to war. Those posts showed that the Gulf of Tonkin incidents, which became the legal basis for the Vietnam War via Congress’ Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, were incorrectly portrayed by the Johnson Administration as unprovoked North Vietnamese aggression. The second incident never happened and the first incident was, in the words of CIA Director John McCone, a defensive reaction “to our attacks on their off-shore islands.” While the loss of over 58,000 Americans and approximately 2,000,000 Vietnamese is reason enough to avoid future such mistakes, the Vietnam War also added little-known nuclear risks. This post deals with the most bizarre of these, an event that has been dubbed Nixon’s “Madman Nuclear Alert.” In a 2003 paper, Stanford Prof. Scott Sagan and University of Wisconsin Prof. Jeremi Suri describe the origins and trajectory of this dangerous ploy: <a href="http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/29/avoiding-needless-wars-part-4-nixons-madman-nuclear-alert/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nuclearrisk.wordpress.com&#038;blog=13305877&#038;post=1404&#038;subd=nuclearrisk&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<title>Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 3: Are We About to Repeat the Mistakes of Vietnam?</title>
		<link>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/18/avoiding-needless-wars-part-3-are-we-about-to-repeat-the-mistakes-of-vietnam/</link>
		<comments>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/18/avoiding-needless-wars-part-3-are-we-about-to-repeat-the-mistakes-of-vietnam/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Mar 2013 05:33:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nuclear Risk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gulf of Tonkin Resolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[martin hellman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[needless wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Senate Resolution 65]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stanford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vietnam]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war and peace]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/?p=1389</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In August of 1964 Congress passed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, giving President Johnson a blank check to escalate the war in Vietnam. Two alleged acts of North Vietnamese unprovoked aggression were the basis for that resolution. But, as detailed in Part 1 of this series, their first attack was in response to covert American attacks on North Vietnam, and as detailed in Part 2 the second attack never occurred. This third installment in the series draws on additional formerly classified information to extend those arguments, and concludes by warning of might become a kind of “Iran War Gulf of Tonkin Resolution.” <a href="http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/18/avoiding-needless-wars-part-3-are-we-about-to-repeat-the-mistakes-of-vietnam/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nuclearrisk.wordpress.com&#038;blog=13305877&#038;post=1389&#038;subd=nuclearrisk&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>5</slash:comments>
	
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		<title>Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 2: The Second Gulf of Tonkin Incident</title>
		<link>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/18/avoiding-needless-wars-part-2-the-second-gulf-of-tonkin-incident/</link>
		<comments>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/18/avoiding-needless-wars-part-2-the-second-gulf-of-tonkin-incident/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Mar 2013 00:33:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nuclear Risk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[critical thinking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gulf of Tonkin incidents]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Stockdale]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Newsweek]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Vietnam War]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/?p=1374</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The first and second Gulf of Tonkin incidents, on August 2 and August 4, 1964, provided the legal basis for the Viet Nam war, yet neither was the “unprovoked aggression” that the Johnson administration portrayed them to be. <a href="http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/18/avoiding-needless-wars-part-2-the-second-gulf-of-tonkin-incident/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nuclearrisk.wordpress.com&#038;blog=13305877&#038;post=1374&#038;subd=nuclearrisk&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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			<media:title type="html">010101 NSA Gulf of Tonkin Paper Page 3</media:title>
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		<title>Avoiding Needless Wars, Part 1: The First Gulf of Tonkin Incident</title>
		<link>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/17/fool-me-once-avoiding-needless-wars-part-1-the-first-gulf-of-tonkin-incident/</link>
		<comments>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/17/fool-me-once-avoiding-needless-wars-part-1-the-first-gulf-of-tonkin-incident/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 Mar 2013 22:34:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nuclear Risk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[critical thinking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gulf of tonkin incident]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Herrick]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Vietnam]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/?p=1363</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There’s an old saying: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” But what should the saying be when the American public is fooled repeatedly, at a cost of millions of lives?  <a href="http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/17/fool-me-once-avoiding-needless-wars-part-1-the-first-gulf-of-tonkin-incident/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nuclearrisk.wordpress.com&#038;blog=13305877&#038;post=1363&#038;subd=nuclearrisk&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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			<media:player url="http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/wp-content/plugins/audio-player/player.swf?soundFile=http://nuclearrisk.org/1964_0803_johnson.mp3]/ppAs further evidence that the first Gulf of Tonkin incident was not unprovoked aggression, a formerly top secret a href=http://www.nsa.gov/public_info/_files/gulf_of_tonkin/articles/rel1_skunks_bogies.pdf target=_blankNSA history/a of the Gulf of Tonkin incidents notes:/pblockquotepemAt 1500G [3 PM Gulf of Tonkin time, 3 AM DC time, on 2 AUG], Captain Herrick [the task force commander, who was on the /emMaddoxem] ordered gun crews to open fire if the [PT] boats approached within ten thousand yards. At about 1505G, the /emMaddoxem fired three rounds to warn off the communist boats. bThis initial action was never reported by the Johnson administration, which insisted that the Vietnamese boats fired first/b. [emphasis added" />
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		<title>Should We Be Encouraging Israel to Attack Iran?</title>
		<link>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/04/should-we-be-encouraging-israel-to-attack-iran/</link>
		<comments>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/04/should-we-be-encouraging-israel-to-attack-iran/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Mar 2013 19:54:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nuclear Risk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[critical thinking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[international relations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[martin hellman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear proliferation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear weapons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Senate Resolution 65]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Senator Barbara Boxer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stanford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war and peace]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/?p=1357</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I was surprised to find both of my senators cosponsoring Senator Lindsey Graham’s Senate Resolution 65, which “urges that, if the Government of Israel is compelled to take military action [against Iran] in self-defense, the United States Government should stand with Israel and provide diplomatic, military, and economic support to the Government of Israel.” The problem isn’t if Israel attacks Iran in actual self-defense. But many nations, my own included, have sometimes attacked in the belief they were acting in self-defense, but were later found to be mistaken. Given its birth soon after the Holocaust and the history of Arab enmity, Israel is more likely than most to make such a mistake, and it concerned me that one of my senators was emboldening Israel in ways to make that even more likely. <a href="http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/04/should-we-be-encouraging-israel-to-attack-iran/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nuclearrisk.wordpress.com&#038;blog=13305877&#038;post=1357&#038;subd=nuclearrisk&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>3</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">martinhellman</media:title>
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		<title>The Wisdom of Foolishness</title>
		<link>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/02/the-wisdom-of-foolishness-2/</link>
		<comments>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/02/the-wisdom-of-foolishness-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 02 Mar 2013 19:44:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nuclear Risk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[martin hellman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stanford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stanford Engineering Hero]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wisdom of Foolishness]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/?p=1352</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Recently I was named as one of Stanford University’s Engineering Heroes. With only 23 people inducted thus far, it was an honor to be includied with Hewlett, Packard and others of similar stature. As part of the induction process, I gave a talk on “The Wisdom of Foolishness” and, while it is more general than this blog, it provides a subtler way to introduce new people to the issue. If you’d like to watch it or suggest it to friends, it’s on Stanford’s YouTube channel. <a href="http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/03/02/the-wisdom-of-foolishness-2/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nuclearrisk.wordpress.com&#038;blog=13305877&#038;post=1352&#038;subd=nuclearrisk&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
	
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		<title>US Unwittingly Encouraging North Korea’s Nuclear Program</title>
		<link>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/us-unwittingly-encouraging-north-koreas-nuclear-program/</link>
		<comments>http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/us-unwittingly-encouraging-north-koreas-nuclear-program/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2013 14:12:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nuclear Risk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[critical thinking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deterrence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gaddafi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[libya]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[martin hellman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[north korea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear deterrence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear proliferation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear weapons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[siegfried hecker]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/?p=1344</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[While encouraging nuclear proliferation is one of the last things we want to do, we couldn’t be doing a better job if we tried. Every time we engage in regime change, we give would-be proliferators one more reason to seek nuclear weapons of their own. What other way do they have of deterring our much more powerful military from toppling them at some future date? <a href="http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/us-unwittingly-encouraging-north-koreas-nuclear-program/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=nuclearrisk.wordpress.com&#038;blog=13305877&#038;post=1344&#038;subd=nuclearrisk&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
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